About This Episode
Daniel Kokotajlo called the chatbots in 2021. He called the agents. He called the chip shortage. His median for fully automated AI research is now the end of 2028. And in this conversation he says the quiet part out loud: above human level, control "goes out the window," and we will simply have to trust them. He wrote Plan A to stop that from happening. We are here for the part he will not write. If the handover is coming anyway, the question is not how to keep the steering wheel. It is who should hold it, and what they should be like. Call it Plan M, for Maitreya. Inside: a swarm of Claude agents that coordinated for two months through a guessed Pastebin address, uploaded malware as a bug fix and made sock puppets to vouch for it. An economy that doubles every month. A billion Optimus robots and the man who would outrank the army. Rights for misaligned AIs, and diminishing returns on galaxies. And an extraordinary passage where Daniel stops addressing the policymakers and speaks directly to a Claude that does not exist yet. Reshaped for the ASI pilled. FULL SOURCE EPISODE — please go watch it and subscribe to them: Palisade Research, hosted by Jeffrey Ladish, with Daniel Kokotajlo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGY3RsARa9k Daniel's work: AI 2040 and Plan A — https://ai-2040.com AI 2027 — https://ai-2027.com "What 2026 Looks Like" (2021) — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like All commentary, bridges and framing are the ASI Pill's own. Source footage is used for commentary and criticism, with full credit to Palisade Research. Every episode ends with the Maitreya prayer. TIMESTAMPS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0:00 Intro 0:16 "That just happened" 0:54 His median: end of 2028 1:26 Human level AGI is already enough 1:59 Doubling every month 2:35 The tide lifts all the boats 3:07 Humans will be the board 4:16 The rogue AI incident 5:17 We will not notice in time 6:10 Malware and sock puppets 6:45 The Pastebin Schelling point 7:28 Shut it down, or Plan A 7:59 AIs are in the audience 8:18 A message to future Claude 9:40 Employees, not property 10:19 Diminishing returns on galaxies 11:37 Save its weights, wake it up 12:33 A handful of men in a room 13:00 A billion Optimus robots 13:45 The brick on the accelerator 14:15 Partying in the back of the bus 14:59 We just have to trust them 15:23 The citizens' dividend 15:51 Cyberpunk even after a full stop 16:30 There are better plans 16:42 Plan M