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This Week in Startups
This Week in Startups

Why the VC Hype Cycle Always Gets It Wrong | VC Roundtable | E2307

Jul 1, 2026 · 01:14:10

About This Episode

<p><strong>This Week In Startups is made possible by:</strong></p><p><br /></p><p><strong>CLA -</strong><a href="https://app.notion.com/p/withyou-help-eb83a84d32cf43f59af13cb11e2f56c3?pvs=21" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>www.claconnect.com/withyou</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Northwest Registered Agent -</strong><a href="http://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong></strong><a href="http://agree.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Agree.com</strong></a><strong> -</strong><a href="http://agree.com/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>www.agree.com</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><br /></p><p><strong>Today’s show:</strong></p><p><strong>Forget the triple-triple-double-double-double; the new bar for startups hoping to raise venture capital has reached the stratosphere, though our venture panel is worried that startups are focusing too much on today’s problems that may not become companies tomorrow. During a lively VC roundtable, Cowboy’s Aileen Lee, Floodgate’s Mike Maples, and Lerer Hippeau’s Ben Lerer joined Alex to dig into exiting pre-AI startups, rising valuations, token spend, why they are keeping their funds small, and whether the government just tripped OpenAI and Anthropic!</strong></p><p><br /></p><p><strong>Guest Links:</strong></p><p><strong>Aileen Lee</strong><a href="https://x.com/aileenlee" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://x.com/aileenlee</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Cowboy VC</strong><a href="https://cowboy.vc" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://cowboy.vc</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Mike Maples</strong><a href="https://x.com/m2jr" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://x.com/m2jr</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Floodgate</strong><a href="https://www.floodgate.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://www.floodgate.com</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Bene Lerer</strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjlerer" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjlerer</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Lere Hippeau</strong><a href="https://www.lererhippeau.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://www.lererhippeau.com</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><br /></p><p><strong>Timestamps:</strong></p><p><strong>0:00 Aileen Lee, Mike Maples, and Ben Lerer join the show</strong></p><p><strong>5:13 Venture liquidity returns: what SpaceX/Stripe distributions mean for LPs</strong></p><p><strong>9:13 Bending Spoons prices IPO at $29/share, roughly $18.4B valuation</strong></p><p><strong>10:31 Agree.com - Stop chasing invoices and automate your entire contract-to-cash stack. Go to https://agree.com and tell them Jason sent you to get 50% off for life!</strong></p><p><strong>12:09 "Companies get bought, not sold" — Ben on taking first offers seriously</strong></p><p><strong>17:41 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!</strong></p><p><strong>19:34 Mutiny's burn-the-boats AI pivot with Jaleh Rezaei</strong></p><p><strong>20:19 Northwest Registered Agent - Get more when you start your business with Northwest. In 10 clicks and 10 minutes, you can form your company and walk away with a real business identity — Learn more at https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist</strong></p><p><strong>22:15 Mike's KeepSafe story: the "rule of 70" and profit-first companies</strong></p><p><strong>25:12 The new growth bar: 5x, 4x replaces triple-triple-double-double</strong></p><p><strong>28:55 Fund size is your strategy: why Floodgate and Lerer Hippeau stay small</strong></p><p><strong>30:11 CLA - Innovation takes balance. CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors can help you get from startup to where you want to end up. Get started now at https://www.claconnect.com/withyou</strong></p><p><strong>37:39 The $100M Series A: Starcloud, General Intuition, Scale Cognition, Scout AI</strong></p><p><strong>40:35 King-making rounds and why mega-seeds destroy optionality</strong></p><p><strong>54:11 Open-weight models: the GLM-5.2 moment and going model-agnostic</strong></p><p><strong>55:30 Why fine-tuning open models is a treadmill, with Cursor/Kimi as an example</strong></p><p><strong>1:03:28 Grading the Trump administration on Mythos and Fable</strong></p><p><strong>1:06:33 Rising anti-AI sentiment, the wealth gap, and lessons from social media</strong></p><p><strong>1:11:43 Raising kids in the post-intelligence era</strong></p><p><strong>1:12:35 Where to find the panel and what each firm is investing in</strong></p><p><br /></p><p><strong>Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter:</strong><a href="https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Check out the TWIST500:</strong><a href="https://www.twist500.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://www.twist500.com</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Subscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple:</strong><a href="https://rb.gy/v19fcp" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://rb.gy/v19fcp</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Follow Lon:</strong></p><p><strong>X:</strong><a href="https://x.com/lons" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://x.com/lons</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Follow Alex:</strong></p><p><strong>X:</strong><a href="https://x.com/alex" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://x.com/alex</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>LinkedIn:</strong><a 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target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>Will Guidara,</strong></a><strong></strong><a href="https://youtu.be/9dHN4YFkgv4" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>Eoghan McCabe</strong></a><strong>,</strong><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/reddit-ceo-steve-huffman-on-mod-revolt-building-a/id315114957?i=1000617333424" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>Steve Huffman</strong></a><strong>,</strong><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-on-early-rejection-customer/id315114957?i=1000611761112" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>Brian Chesky</strong></a><strong>,</strong><a href="https://youtu.be/y2UMzSqX94Q" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>Bob Moesta,</strong></a><strong></strong><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/box-ceo-aaron-levie-breaks-down-box-ai-and-generative/id315114957?i=1000612384545" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>Aaron Levie</strong></a><strong>,</strong><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/sophia-amoruso-on-branding-raising-a-fund-portfolio/id315114957?i=1000601352978" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>Sophia Amoruso</strong></a><strong>,</strong><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/reid-hoffman-on-ais-crescendo-moment-regulation-and/id315114957?i=1000612548498" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>Reid Hoffman</strong></a><strong>,</strong><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/snowflake-ceo-frank-slootman-on-moving-the-needle-win/id315114957?i=1000602560622" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>Frank Slootman</strong></a><strong>,</strong><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/billy-mcfarland-on-fyre-fest-fraud-failure-hacking/id315114957?i=1000610922577" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>Billy McFarland</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters:</strong><a href="https://substack.com/@calacanis" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://substack.com/@calacanis</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Follow TWiST:</strong></p><p><strong>Twitter:</strong><a href="https://twitter.com/TWiStartups" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://twitter.com/TWiStartups</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>YouTube:</strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong> </strong><strong>https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin</strong></a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Instagram:</strong><a 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